Behind the stalled Iran talks lies a quiet US pivot: not a deal, but a strategy to collapse the regime. Or Horvitz breaks down what the headlines are missing.
Editor’s note: This is the first article in a new occasional series featuring battles that just didn’t matter, may look important, but in fact had negligible strategic or political effects or were absurd, anticlimactic, or structurally irrelevant to the wars they were part of.Some battles never end.…
China has spent years modifying civilian ferries to launch amphibious armored vehicles, developing specialized equipment to move forces ashore without conventional port facilities, hardening dozens of air bases, and rapidly expanding the missile forces that could be used to deter or defeat a U.S. in…
War on the RocksRELIABLE 8.0defensa✓ 18 fuentes📎 bien sourced📊 datosTue, 18 Aug 2026 07:00:57
On June 26, 2026, the Civil Police of Rio de Janeiro, through its specialized firearms, ammunition, and explosives unit, raided a clandestine workshop in Rio das Pedras, on the city’s west side. Investigators said the group used a 3D printer seized at the scene to produce pistol frames and structura…
Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum, only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues…
The Marine Corps just released its plan to fight against adversaries on land, and Ryan had the two architects of the plan, Ground Combat Element 2040, on the show to talk about it. They discuss drones, resilience, long-range fires, logistics, and what marines will need to survive and fight on an inc…
In 2025, Rob Geist Pinfold wrote, “The March Massacres Show That Syria Urgently Needs Solutions, Not Sanctions,” in which he argued that sanctions relief was a major way the West could positively engage with the new Syrian government. A year later, after sanctions relief materialized and the United …
“Unthreatening and respectful.” That is how the president of the United States described North Korea on Aug. 16, 2026, in his social media post ordering his secretary of defense to scale back joint exercises with South Korea. Two years earlier in Seoul, the U.S.-South Korean alliance agreed that Sou…
Cyber security remains a persistent concern for public and private sector organizations alike. Given the potential impact of cyber threats from criminal groups, adversarial states, and extremists, the topic draws substantial attention. Yet, in a field that evolves so quickly, some risks slip through…
A suite of laws to counter foreign sanctions, intervention, and long-arm jurisdiction is impacting both cross-border business and geopolitical competition.
Judged by the initial strategic goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, Russia’s military lost its war against Ukraine some time ago. Yet Russia’s armed forces have not stopped fighting and continue to prosecute large-scale combat operations in a brutalizing, protracted war sucking up…
MeduzaRELIABLE 7.5geopolíticaanti-Kremlin✓ 5 fuentesFri, 21 Aug 2026 20:09:23
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine’s decision to ban the Russian animated series Masha and the Bear “demonstrates the ugliness of the Kyiv regime.”
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Brandon Tseng, the co-founder and president of Shield AI and a former Navy SEAL, whose company builds the Hivemind autonomy software, the V-BAT and X-BAT aircraft, and Aechelon synthetic reality and simulation technologies. We asked Brandon about the bet …
Editor’s Note: The following article draws on themes from the author’s forthcoming book titled US Counterterrorism Operations in Afghanistan: Jackpots, Dry Holes, and Collateral Damage.Over the next month, the United States will pass two major historical milestones: the five-year anniversary of its …
Emerging from the chaos of supplying the U.S. Army during the War of 1812, the War Department sought to foster domestic production of standardized muskets. Out of this industrial project arose an invention that laid the foundation for automation and mass production. Thomas Blanchard’s copying lathe …
Lt. Gen. (ret.) Francis Beaudette, former commanding general of the U.S. Army Special Operations Command, joins Ryan to discuss how his family history, service, and books shaped his path into and time in the Army. Together, they talk through his years as a young officer during Operation Desert Storm…
Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum, only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues…
Operation Epic Fury made clear that AI is now at the heart of American warfighting. Central Command used Claude through Palantir’s Maven Smart System platform to generate and prioritize roughly 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours of the campaign, at an operational tempo that more than doubled the op…
In 2025, James Cameron wrote, “Eurodeterrent: A Vision for an Anglo-French Nuclear Force,” where he argued the United Kingdom and France should cooperate to develop a nuclear deterrent umbrella for Europe, independent of Washington. A year later, after French President Emmanuel Macron’s landmark nuc…
In early 1963, a single number characterized the difference in the positions of the United States and the Soviet Union on a comprehensive nuclear test ban. Nikita Khrushchev had proposed three on-site inspections each year. Washington was asking for seven. Other differences remained, including inspe…
The Iran war is beginning to resemble the Ukraine war in one important way. Operationally, the wars themselves are still very different — Ukraine is a large-scale ground invasion, while the Iran war is not there just yet. But their political logic after a failure to achieve a quick result is startin…
In a Pacific war, the U.S. military cannot assume uncontested access to its depots and supply lines for munitions, spare parts, food, water, and energy. Jonathan is joined by David Tuttle (Rune Technologies), Paul Lwin (HavocAI), and Tom Garvey (CACI) to discuss sustaining a dispersed force that’s f…
For years, the Chinese military’s own newspaper has been making a promise it may no longer be able to keep. Whenever the People’s Liberation Army Daily (Jiefangjun Bao), the official newspaper of China’s Central Military Commission, discusses artificial intelligence and command, it returns to the sa…
Military analysts are captivated by how the material nature of war is transforming in Ukraine. Unmanned systems have captured Russian infantry units, battered Russian naval and commercial ships, and even, with the help of on-board AI, conducted autonomous strikes deep into areas where Russian jammin…
“You cannot be at mental peace always. You will be worried. So even my family — they are scared all the time, and they were anxiously praying [for] the vessel [to] come out of this area safely.” While Captain Chirag operates a commercial cargo vessel in the Red Sea, his comments in the aftermath of …
Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranU.S. strikes on Iranian soil tapered off in August after frequent exchanges throughout July. The hiatus seem…
The most successful deterrent threats leave no evidence behind. No missiles fly. No networks go down. No troops cross borders. Nothing happens. For policymakers, that is often the desired outcome. For researchers, it is a nightmare. Imagine, however, being able to observe a decision-maker preparing …
In February 2026, the United States and Israel initiated a war in the Middle East against Iran. Since then, the warring sides have oscillated between strikes, a fragile ceasefire, and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Open hostilities resumed in mid-July. More recently, the Houthis in Yemen have…
Current conversations surrounding unconventional weapons — chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear — have become so fantastical as to be unserious. As the Chinese military fundamentally rethinks biological warfare and Russia continues to use chloropicrin in Ukraine, hypothetical scenarios of…
The release of the Chinese open-weight AI model Kimi K3 has compressed a year’s worth of unresolved AI policy debate into a single news cycle. On July 21, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened sanctions against Chinese labs found to have built their models on “theft,” reporting that the govern…
Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues …
Washington has repeatedly used trade policy and U.S. market access over the past decade to advance broader economic security priorities with its trading partners. The Trump administration’s decision not to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on July 1, during a mandatory six-year review, is the l…
Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Michael P. Duffey joins Jonathan to discuss the Pentagon’s ongoing acquisition transformation. Their conversation spans the recent munitions agreements, industry investments, the shift to portfolio acquisition executives, allied coproduction…
Five years after the assassinations in Haiti of Monferrier Dorval, Diego Charles, and Antoinette Duclaire, justice remains elusive. Four years after the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, accountability is still incomplete. Yet international reporting on Haiti continues to foreground outputs:…
Only days after the Trump administration celebrated what it called a landmark civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, the president himself appeared to place the entire arrangement in jeopardy. In a Truth Social post, President Donald Trump declared the deal “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia j…
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and efforts to extract payments for safe passage — plus, more recently, the Houthis’ move to attack Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — have highlighted the risks of maritime chokepoints to global shipping and raised questions about the future for…
In late June, cadets at the Israeli military’s officer training school sat through a lecture by Ofer Winter, a retired brigadier general and a polarizing figure in the Israel Defense Forces. According to Haaretz, Winter told the future officers that “there are no uninvolved civilians in Gaza” and ac…
When Anduril announced a $910 million drone production facility in Ohio, it was not politics as usual. The main message came from Ohio’s governor, Mike DeWine, while Representative Mike Carey’s press release thanked the governor. Members of Congress usually take substantial credit for defense indust…
In 2025, Matthew Fuhrmann wrote, “U.S. Allies and Adversaries Are Attempting Nuclear Deterrence Without Weapons – Will It Work?,” where he argued countries don’t always need to go as far as actually building nuclear weapons to reap the benefits of nuclear deterrence. A year later, we asked Matthew t…
Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranOver the last two weeks, President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened major attacks on Iran. Going into the …
It is conceivable that in one blistering campaign, the People’s Republic of China could invade, occupy, and forcibly annex Taiwan. One question would dominate the post-occupation debate: “What more could have been done?” The obvious answers will be better intelligence, bigger exercises, more weapons…
The Iliad and Odyssey have shaped Western ideas of heroism for nearly three millennia. Yet despite centuries of debate over whether they reflect historical reality or poetic fantasy, the Homeric world remains an internally consistent universe worth studying on its own terms. This isn’t about separat…
In April 2026, over a month after the United States launched its attack on Iran, leading to thousands of reprisal strikes across the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates shut down a network of money changers connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iranian exchange houses and the shell companie…
The United States has bluntly signaled a deprioritization of the Indian Ocean at a peculiar time. The reversion of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to its former name, U.S. Pacific Command, signifies no material change in force posture or organizational responsibilities, but it unavoidably signals less foc…
Editor’s note: This is the seventh article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader national security, politics, and society. This series will run for several weeks to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary, and winners will be sel…
Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum, only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues…
The White House has the right instinct on AI. Its June 5 National Security Presidential Memorandum commits the government to putting the most capable models in the hands of national security professionals “without delay.” The military version of that bet is decision dominance: seeing, deciding, and …
Nine countries now possess nuclear weapons. Arms control agreements painstakingly built over decades have collapsed. Geopolitical competition is intensifying rivalries between nuclear-armed powers. North Korea continues expanding its arsenal and delivery systems. China is on a trajectory to go from …
When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, the U.S. government was the unrivaled patron of American science. It funded nearly two-thirds of the nation’s research and development — much of it for defense — defining the early Cold War. In a phenomenon that’s been widely explored in our Arsenal of…
When war changes, schools change. New technology, the politics of mass mobilization and campaign design, and novel tactics that defined Napoleonic warfare led to Gerhard von Scharnhorst’s reforms and the idea of lifelong education as a professional obligation. The pattern repeated itself in the inte…
Editor’s note: This is the eighth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader national security, politics, and society. This series will run for several weeks to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary, and winners will be sele…
In 2025, Nurlan Aliyev wrote, “The Mayhem of Russia’s “Research” Fleet,” where he argued that NATO must act decisively to safeguard critical undersea infrastructure from Russian sabotage attempts. A year later, we asked him to revisit his arguments. Image: Andrey Luzik via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2…
The 1930 comic history, 1066 and All That, made famous the British habit of reducing national history to a sequence of memorable dates. The modern Royal Navy has its own unhappy version of that calendar. Since 1945, a series of ostensibly practical political decisions has steadily reduced Britain’s …
Given the relentless demand for computing power, electronic components are in scarce supply. Prices for certain memory chips, known as DRAM, have surged by more than 50 percent in a single quarter this year, and have roughly quadrupled since last fall. Because DRAM supply is tight, Apple, Dell, and …
A strong commercial space industry is an important partner for the U.S. government, as it contributes to building more robust space and defense capabilities and facilitates innovation more broadly. As competition between the United States and China heats up, both countries look to the commercial spa…
Water and energy infrastructure have become one of Iran’s main levers of deterrence against the United States. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi recently made it clear to Gulf states that if the U.S. military renewed large-scale strikes on Iran, their critical infrastructure would be struck. Iranian …
When the United States and Iran announced their framework agreement on June 15, attention focused on the direct U.S.-Iran dimensions of the deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and the fate of Iran’s nuclear program. But the agreement also in…
To sustain future maritime operations, the U.S military will need to run supplies through an environment that spans thousands of miles of open ocean, denied ports, contested straits, and archipelagic chokepoints against adversaries that have spent decades studying how to target American logistics. T…
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have exposed a strategic reality that military planners are only beginning to confront: In a data-centric age, digital infrastructure has become part of the battlespace. Data centers and cloud regions are now the digital backbone of military power and economic…
Numerous recent pirate attacks, especially the hijacking of three merchant vessels off the Horn of Africa, are a stark reminder that the conditions for resurgence can return quickly.It took years of sustained, coordinated effort by multinational naval coalitions, the shipping industry, and internati…
The most produced American military aircraft of World War II was not a small fighter, a trainer, or a simple utility airplane — it was a complex four-engine heavy bomber called the B-24 Liberator. Over the course of five years, American industry produced a staggering 18,482 of these bombers, and the…
In 2024, Allison Minor wrote, “Solving the Houthi Threat to Freedom of Navigation,” where she argued the international response to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea has so far been inadequate and proposed a U.N.-led solution. Two years later, with global attention once again focused on mari…
Mali is not Syria, and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin is not Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.While the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the rise of the Ahmed al-Sharaa government in Damascus, Syria can be seen as a net positive for regional security in the Levant, a Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Mus…
In the span of two weeks, the White House issued two of the most ambitious artificial intelligence directives in American history. On June 2, President Donald Trump signed an executive order mandating rapid AI adoption and hardened cyber defense across the government. Three days later, National Secu…
Joe Jewell left academia and his role directing hypersonic wind tunnels to oversee the Pentagon’s science and technology enterprise. He wants more researchers to make the same move. He joins Jonathan to discuss the Pentagon’s science enterprise, why he thinks academia is the envy of America’s closes…
Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThree weeks after it was signed, the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran seems to…
What do you do when two identities that make up your deepest self find themselves on opposite sides of a moral and spiritual battlefield?I am Catholic. I have been one for over 20 years since I made the life-altering decision to join a friend for Mass one day. My faith became a spiritual and ethical…
Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues …